Informed Comment

"Arab-Americans and Muslim-Americans have particular presence in the Midwest, including in swing states like Michigan and Ohio (these two plus Pennsylvania and Florida all have more than 100,000 Arab-Americans. Since many Arab-Americans are Christians, they aren't exactly an overlap with Muslim-Americans). They do not ordinarily swing an election, however, because they were about evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. But when the Iraqi Shiites start demonstrating against the Bush administration, it is a sign that they may well vote for Kerry. A large number of Muslim-Americans is deeply upset by the fighting in Najaf, and by what they see as Bush administration trampling of their civil rights.

In a very close race, the Muslim Americans and Arab Americans in the above states could be a decisive constituency. There are about 300,000 Arab Americans in southeast Michigan, a state with a population of 11 million. All the signs are that they are migrating toward Kerry and Nader in large numbers. In 2000, many of those who voted Republican were afraid that with Joe Lieberman on the ticket, a Gore administration would be very hard on the Palestinians. But what I'm hearing from the community is that they are so upset with Bush that they will vote Democrat this year."